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Palm Coast & Flagler County Quarterly Market Update

Palm Coast & Flagler County Quarterly Market Update

As you might have been hearing in news reports, the Real Estate Housing Market is showing positive signs.  The truth is that the local market has been showing positive signs for the last couple of years.  The best way to characterize these first three months of 2012 is . . . explosive!  Let’s take a look:

1. The number of residential house closings (aka “sales”) has been well above last year for the same period each month.  About 435 houses closed in Flagler County from January 2012 through March 2012 which is 50% above last year’s 289 for the same period.

The Number of House Closing By Month Comparing 2009 through March of 2012

As you can see, most years follow a similar trend in terms of the number of closings with this year being way above last year and the other prior two years.  The one trend exception to note here is 2010 when the Home Buyer’s Tax Credit was expiring in June of that year.  This caused volume to be “pushed up” to the earlier part of the year.

You can also look at this trend in one line and you see the overall trend moving upwards quite a bit.

2.  But there are still a lot of houses for sale, right?  Actually, no.  The number of active house listings has been decreasing quite a bit every month locally and we are currently looking at 887 houses for sale for all of Flagler County and 642 for the Palm Coast area.  The other great part about this is the significant decrease in the number of Short Sale house listings which is 164 for all of Flagler County and 145 for Palm Coast.  Short Sales were typically accounting for around 36% of all houses for sale in the area.

3.  Cash is still making up for the majority of house sales to the tune of 53% of all house closings through March of this year and the next biggest contributor being Conventional Loans at 28% of all house closings.  Here’s a chart of the financing types for closings in the area from January 2012 through March 2012.

4.  What about price?  Median Price has been stabilizing and is showing signs of “inching” up.  As I’ve said before, price is always dependent upon supply and demand mainly.  With the number of houses available for sale (supply) decreasing and the number of closings (demand) increasing, we are seeing the positive impact on prices.  Should we expect “explosive” gains in price?  No, but we should begin seeing more normal value appreciations in general.  Remember that individual house values are dependent a number of factors and feel free to contact me for a local free Comparable Market Analysis for your home.  Here’s the Median Price Trend for house closings in the are from 2009 through March 2012:

Again, it’s been a great start to the year.  There are still great deals available in the area.  With interest rates at truly historical lows and current prices, owning just makes perfect sense.  Give me a call today if you are thinking of buying or selling in the area.

Disclaimer: Information based upon the Flagler County Association of Realtors MLS as of  4/3/2012  for Residential Houses.  Information may be deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed

 

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Trulia Adds “Trulia Estimates”: Novelty or Not?

Let me start by saying, Trulia.com and Zillow.com are great companies that I think bring great additional resources for home shopping to consumers.  I love their websites and resources they offer.  Zillow.com became a hit with it’s “Zestimate”.  Just recently Trulia.com launched, what I am guessing is a competitive response to Zillow’s “Zestimates”, called “Trulia Estimates”.  These are these companies attempts to provide real-time property valuation using proprietary algorithms.  Sounds simple enough right?  Think again.

One of the things any Real Estate Professional will tell you they wish was automated is . . . property pricing.  This is one of the most daunting tasks that truly requires a hands-on approach.  The common question is, “Why?”  Seriously, look at all the amazing things computers can do today and they can’t automatically tell me the price a property should be just by typing in an address?  Computers can tell you a price, but they can not tell you the price a property should be priced at accurately.  The biggest reason being is that no two properties are the same.  Even houses of the same model have different features added by owners over times, conditions can be different, location, etc.  All of these factors play a role in pricing a property.

Novelty or Not?

Novelty . . . definitely.  Be very careful with these valuation systems because we are not talking about possibly sacrificing just a few dollars with wrong information, you’re looking at tens of thousands of dollars if not more.  Let’s take a look at Trulia Estimate’s Accuracy for my area Flager County, FL:

  1. Properties on Trulia: 65,001
  2. Properties with Estimates: 40,669
  3. Median Error: 14.3%
  4. Within 5% of Actual Selling Price: 19.2%
  5. Within 10% of Actual Selling Price: 35.6%
  6. Within 20% of Actual Selling Price: 67%

At their best range of “Within 20%”, 67% of the properties fell within that range.  What does “20%” equate to in dollars?  On a $150,000 that 20% is $30,000.  No small amount of money at all to be guessing about.  Zillow’s Zestimates are not much different for the area either.

Again, be careful with these systems.  Believe me, I would love for an as-close-to-accurate automated pricing system but unfortunately it just doesn’t exist right now.

 

 

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Seller Advice: Things To Be Aware Of With “Flat Fee” Selling

Seller Advice: Things To Be Aware Of With “Flat Fee” Selling

If you’ve been thinking about selling your house you may have come across the advice to to a “For Sale By Owner”.  Whether selling yourself or through an agent, advertising online and in an MLS  (notice that I didn’t say “the MLS”, and I’ll explain this more in a moment) is extremely important nowadays.  Some real estate companies have begun offering what is called “flat-fee selling” as a “for sale by owner” option.  This might sound like a great option, but you really have to be careful here as a seller.

First, what is a “flat fee” option?  Simply put; instead of committing to a percentage commission to a real estate Broker, the seller pays a fee to the Broker for a set of services in selling your home.  Typically the service is centered on entering the property into an MLS which advertises your home on Realtor.com, provides advice on dealing with agents bringing buyers, etc.  Basically, it’s a very watered-down set of services offered to sellers and really focuses on simply “getting the property entered into MLS”.

Sounds great, right?  Well here’s the pitfalls of this program and how to avoid them:

  1. There is not just one MLS, and all MLS’s are local.   This part is HUGE with this program.  MLS’s (Multiple Listing Service) are privately held local databases owned and operated by the local Association of Realtors.  Almost all MLS’s syndicate to Realtor.com, but entering a property into a California MLS for your home in Flagler County Florida makes it practically invisible to local Realtors here in Flagler County.  Important:  Ask the company what MLS they enter your property into prior to paying them anything.  If it’s not with the local MLS, you are actually limiting your exposure.
  2. You can actually limit your exposure.  First, let’s look at the first part.  Entry into an MLS does get you exposure onto Realtor.com, and although that’s the #1 place buyers shop for properties online . . . it’s not the only place.  Likewise, it often times not the property people end up buying that they see on there. When I list a property for a customer, it’s entered into and syndicated to hundreds of websites where I know buyers are looking.  Likewise, I want every local Realtor knowing it’s for sale.  Why?  Because they are working with buyers every day.  If it’s a non-local MLS, your limiting your exposure a great deal.
  3. You may cost yourself more in equity than listing on a commission basis.  The biggest enemy of a listing is . . . time.  The greater the days on the market, the more likely price will be impacted.  The “gut reaction” to a lack of showings and anxiety is setting in is to reduce the price.  The biggest contributor to time on the market is lack of exposure to the widest possible buyer audience.  In essence, you can reduce price and not address your advertising issue which then results in the same lack of response and further price reductions.  Beyond that, buyers are savvy today and one of the questions they ask is “How long has it been on the market?” (or they may already know if they’ve been patiently watching the property).  Why?  The reason is they know they longer it is on the market the more desperate I seller is probably getting and the buyer typically gains negotiating leverage.  You may find yourself taking far less than you initially advertised the property for.  And if you are not pricing based upon valid comparable sales you are wasting your time.  Not only will you reduce your chances of getting an offer, you will reduce the likelihood of being able to close a sale on your property that could not possibly appraise for too high a price.
  4. Putting up barrier to others bringing buyers.  One of the slogan angles with these “flat fee” services is often times “Reduce their commission.”  So put the shoe on the other foot for a moment and you are the agent, which property are you going to be more motivated to sell?  The one with the lower payout or the higher payout?  Your property may have a lot of great features but it’s not the only property on the market.  Likewise, if your property is listed with an MLS outside of the local area you most agents won’t ever see it and the many buyers they have set up on automatic email updates of properties aren’t going to see it either.
  5. The risk factor.  One of the things agents take into account with listing a property is security for the seller.  They know who is showing your property and the buyer is monitored.  Lockbox systems are monitored to insure access is limited to agents who have scheduled a showing.  I spoke with a woman the other day who is selling this way and she told me how she has someone coming to see her property because of an ad she placed on a free online classifieds website.  So how does she know the person coming to see the property is legitimate?  She doesn’t.  AND she has two children with her.  I’m not trying to go the “fear” angle here, but the reality is that you have to be careful as to who you granting access to your home when selling and the route she is going is far less secure.
  6. Negotiation.  What you listed your property for sale is often not what you’ll sell it for.  Have you developed a negotiation strategy and planned out various offer scenarios?  Do you know th elocal market as to what properties have sold and what ones are available?  If not, you have greatly reduced your negotiation leverage.

The bottom line to it all is that selling a house (and any real estate) is complex.  There is the intricacies of advertising and then there is the actual transaction if you do get to offers.  I know that equities have been reduced and have even considered offering a “flat fee” type of service myself.  Here’s why I chose not to.  I can’t honestly reduce the amount of service to a seller, take their money, and be ok with the property probably not selling.  At the same time from a business perspective, I can’t afford to invest the same level of service for a fraction of the income.  So why is this service offered a lot of times?  It’s simple . . . leads.  Many times this service is offered knowing that you will not sell and then later convert the seller to the original commission model.  Again, a route I don’t feel is the best level of service I can offer to sellers and is misleading them.

Again, be careful with these offers.  And if you want the “secret formula” to successful selling, this is the one I use and it works:

Priced right + Great Exposure to the Widest Possible Buyer Audience = Showings => Offers => Negotiation => Contract => Sold!

 
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Posted by on March 3, 2012 in Seller Advice

 

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Florida & Local Market Looking Up: The Bigger Picture

As I’ve said on several occasions it’s been an exciting last few years in Real Estate both locally and for Florida. Yes, I said “exciting”.  It has been because there are a great deal of positives.  All “markets” will naturally have their ups and downs.  Real Estate is no different.  What happened a few years ago was unprecedented that’s for sure.  But the good news is that we are seeing “market correction” here in Florida.  Don’t believe me?  Let’s take a look at residential house sales for Florida going back to 1994 through 2010  (stats provided by the Florida Association of Realtors):

Number of House Sales For Florida 1994 to 2010

2011 totals and are waiting on December numbers, but the state and local markets exceeded last year in terms of quantity of sales.  Notice that rise towards the end and then take a look at the level it’s getting back to.  Market correction.  Demand is important because if people aren’t buying then price can not recover.

In terms of the local market we are seeing a similar month-to-month trend in activity with slight increases each year.  2009 appears a bit strange graphically, but this was due to the expiring Home Buyer tax credit that pushed activity up during that year and number of sales finishing about 1% higher than the year before.  Let’s take a look (Information based upon the Flagler County Association of Realtors MLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed):

Number of Residential House Sales For Flagler County Month-to-Month

The positive thing here is activity trends remaining similar.  This is key to knowing the better times to plan if you are thinking of selling.  For example if you place your house on the market for sale in January or February, your expectation should be that you will most likely see lower levels of activity.  The reason really isn’t “the market” but rather the normalcy or the local trends in activity.  Likewise, contrary to common assumptions . . . December is actually an active month for Real Estate locally.  Look at the consistent upticks for December each of the last 3 years.

Things are looking up, and we are seeing some great positives locally and at state level.  The numbers tell the story.

 

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The Agent In The Cloud Tech Toolbox

As most real estate agents know, document handling is tedious and can be extremely time consuming.  On top of that you have this computer storing a lot of important information and the worst thing that can happen is that it crashes.  So you set yourself up with expensive backup hard drives that don’t ever seem to work correctly and are constantly lugging around this heavy laptop.

The challenge I took on was to create efficient document handling and reducing the reliance on any one single computer bundled in such a way that it was easy to use and flexible for change.  The solution . . . the cloud.  The cloud, simply put, is storing things online for easy and secure access from any internet connected computer.  For agents who are constantly mobile and needing access to information and files, it just makes perfect sense.  Sounds expensive right?  It’s actually very inexpensive to set up and can reduce other costs such as supplies.

Here’s an example of how it’s done:

1. Email Hosting through Google Apps for Business

Email is extremely important and you need a professional-looking email address that is under a system that’s easy to manage right?  Google Apps for Business allows to use your domain name for a branded email address under a platform that looks and functions like a regular Gmail account for email handling, contacts, calendars, and more.  The price . . . free for a 10-user account (i.e. add an assistant or team members for collboration under one system).  Plus you get all the great features of a single sign-on to other great Google products just like a regular Google account (i.e. YouTube channel, Picasa, Google+, etc.).

You’re probably asking, “But what about my Outlook?”  When you get down to it, how much of Outlook does the average user actually use?  You store contacts, calendar appointments, and email.  The problem is that all of that becomes tied to that single computer.  You can use Google Apps with Outlook, but we actually dropped it all together as it was unnecessary and upgrades were costly.    Since Google Apps is accessible through any browser, you have reduced your reliance on that computer.  There is a Chrome app that allows you to use your email offline as well if you are concerned about no internet connection.

2. Document Handling With Dropbox

Dropbox is an online document storage and backup system that provides users with 2GB for free and reasonable pricing for storage amounts above that.  With a simple software install and designating what folders you want in your ‘Dropbox’, you get an extremely powerful backup and document access system.

What I really like about this system is the top-notch security and that the backup runs in the background without ever thinking about it and no performance issues.  You get easy access to your files simply by visiting Dropbox.com on any internet-connected computer or on your smartphone or tablet with their mobile app.  If I add a document to my Dropbox on my computer, it’s accessible on my mobile device.  Likewise, if I add a document to my Dropbox on my mobile device, it’s updated and accessible on my computer.  No messy wire connections.

3.  Android or iOS Smartphone and/or Tablet

I personally prefer Android because it ties in seamlessly with the Google Apps system.  I like iPhones too and can make the Google Apps system work with that device as well, but I find Android to be far simpler to use.  The goal at this point is enter (or save) once and have the information updated and accessible everywhere.  When you are set up “in the cloud” that is exactly how things function.  So if I update a contact or add a calendar appointment on my phone the information is automatically updated on my computer and vice versa.  If I add a document to my Dropbox on my computer the document is accessible and usable on my mobile device.

Tablets such as iPads and Android tablets are perfect for this industry.  They actually can be used for access to all of your information as well as document signing through a number of PDF annotation apps.  This way you can actually move more towards truly being paperless.  I’ll walk you through this process at the end.

4.  eFax Through RingCentral

This interestingly enough was the last piece we added.  Why?  Well, it was just something I didn’t want to pay for even though it’s very inexpensive.  The optimal thing is PDF document exchange through email, but not everyone does this.  I personally despise faxing but it is still used quite a bit in the industry.  There are plenty of efax services, but I found RingCentral to be the easiest to use, most affordable, and with best allowance for monthly fax loads.

What’s the benefit?  The fax is converted to PDF and emailed right to you.  No scanning necessary and you can easily drop the document in your Dropbox for backup and access whether on your computer on phone.  Likewise, think of all the paper and toner costs you can save!

So what’s this look like in the real world setting?  Let’s take a look at a contract signing:

  1. You’ve filled out the documents online and saved them as a PDF in your Dropbox customer folder
  2. You meet the customer, pull up the documents on your tablet, and have the customer sign right on screen (preferrably with a stylus and not a finger).
  3. You save the file with their signature back into their Dropbox folder
  4. Attach the PDF signed file to an email to all necessary parties
  5. The offer is accepted and the other party faxes it back to your efax number.  You are alerted on your phone the email with the signed PDF has arrived.
  6. You’re in the field and want to get this over to your customer right away.  You simply save the attached file into their Dropbox folder through your mobile app, attach the file to an email and send it to your customer.

That’s it.  You’re done.  You’ve never had to print.  You’ve never had to scan.  And you weren’t tied to any one single computer.  Speaking of which, if you get a new computer all you have to do is download the Dropbox application and sign into your account to be back in business.  If you’ve abandoned Outlook, you simply start up the browser and log into your email and you are good to go.  No importing, exporting, installing, so forth and dreaded so on.

What do you think?

 
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Posted by on January 17, 2012 in Technology

 

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