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Category Archives: Buyer Advice

Palm Coast & Flagler County Quarterly Market Update

04 Apr
Palm Coast & Flagler County Quarterly Market Update

As you might have been hearing in news reports, the Real Estate Housing Market is showing positive signs.  The truth is that the local market has been showing positive signs for the last couple of years.  The best way to characterize these first three months of 2012 is . . . explosive!  Let’s take a look:

1. The number of residential house closings (aka “sales”) has been well above last year for the same period each month.  About 435 houses closed in Flagler County from January 2012 through March 2012 which is 50% above last year’s 289 for the same period.

The Number of House Closing By Month Comparing 2009 through March of 2012

As you can see, most years follow a similar trend in terms of the number of closings with this year being way above last year and the other prior two years.  The one trend exception to note here is 2010 when the Home Buyer’s Tax Credit was expiring in June of that year.  This caused volume to be “pushed up” to the earlier part of the year.

You can also look at this trend in one line and you see the overall trend moving upwards quite a bit.

2.  But there are still a lot of houses for sale, right?  Actually, no.  The number of active house listings has been decreasing quite a bit every month locally and we are currently looking at 887 houses for sale for all of Flagler County and 642 for the Palm Coast area.  The other great part about this is the significant decrease in the number of Short Sale house listings which is 164 for all of Flagler County and 145 for Palm Coast.  Short Sales were typically accounting for around 36% of all houses for sale in the area.

3.  Cash is still making up for the majority of house sales to the tune of 53% of all house closings through March of this year and the next biggest contributor being Conventional Loans at 28% of all house closings.  Here’s a chart of the financing types for closings in the area from January 2012 through March 2012.

4.  What about price?  Median Price has been stabilizing and is showing signs of “inching” up.  As I’ve said before, price is always dependent upon supply and demand mainly.  With the number of houses available for sale (supply) decreasing and the number of closings (demand) increasing, we are seeing the positive impact on prices.  Should we expect “explosive” gains in price?  No, but we should begin seeing more normal value appreciations in general.  Remember that individual house values are dependent a number of factors and feel free to contact me for a local free Comparable Market Analysis for your home.  Here’s the Median Price Trend for house closings in the are from 2009 through March 2012:

Again, it’s been a great start to the year.  There are still great deals available in the area.  With interest rates at truly historical lows and current prices, owning just makes perfect sense.  Give me a call today if you are thinking of buying or selling in the area.

Disclaimer: Information based upon the Flagler County Association of Realtors MLS as of  4/3/2012  for Residential Houses.  Information may be deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed

 
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Posted by on April 4, 2012 in Buyer Advice, Local Market Reports, Real Estate News, Seller Advice

 

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Trulia Adds “Trulia Estimates”: Novelty or Not?

20 Mar

Let me start by saying, Trulia.com and Zillow.com are great companies that I think bring great additional resources for home shopping to consumers.  I love their websites and resources they offer.  Zillow.com became a hit with it’s “Zestimate”.  Just recently Trulia.com launched, what I am guessing is a competitive response to Zillow’s “Zestimates”, called “Trulia Estimates”.  These are these companies attempts to provide real-time property valuation using proprietary algorithms.  Sounds simple enough right?  Think again.

One of the things any Real Estate Professional will tell you they wish was automated is . . . property pricing.  This is one of the most daunting tasks that truly requires a hands-on approach.  The common question is, “Why?”  Seriously, look at all the amazing things computers can do today and they can’t automatically tell me the price a property should be just by typing in an address?  Computers can tell you a price, but they can not tell you the price a property should be priced at accurately.  The biggest reason being is that no two properties are the same.  Even houses of the same model have different features added by owners over times, conditions can be different, location, etc.  All of these factors play a role in pricing a property.

Novelty or Not?

Novelty . . . definitely.  Be very careful with these valuation systems because we are not talking about possibly sacrificing just a few dollars with wrong information, you’re looking at tens of thousands of dollars if not more.  Let’s take a look at Trulia Estimate’s Accuracy for my area Flager County, FL:

  1. Properties on Trulia: 65,001
  2. Properties with Estimates: 40,669
  3. Median Error: 14.3%
  4. Within 5% of Actual Selling Price: 19.2%
  5. Within 10% of Actual Selling Price: 35.6%
  6. Within 20% of Actual Selling Price: 67%

At their best range of “Within 20%”, 67% of the properties fell within that range.  What does “20%” equate to in dollars?  On a $150,000 that 20% is $30,000.  No small amount of money at all to be guessing about.  Zillow’s Zestimates are not much different for the area either.

Again, be careful with these systems.  Believe me, I would love for an as-close-to-accurate automated pricing system but unfortunately it just doesn’t exist right now.

 

 
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Posted by on March 20, 2012 in Buyer Advice, General, Real Estate News, Seller Advice

 

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Florida & Local Market Looking Up: The Bigger Picture

18 Jan

As I’ve said on several occasions it’s been an exciting last few years in Real Estate both locally and for Florida. Yes, I said “exciting”.  It has been because there are a great deal of positives.  All “markets” will naturally have their ups and downs.  Real Estate is no different.  What happened a few years ago was unprecedented that’s for sure.  But the good news is that we are seeing “market correction” here in Florida.  Don’t believe me?  Let’s take a look at residential house sales for Florida going back to 1994 through 2010  (stats provided by the Florida Association of Realtors):

Number of House Sales For Florida 1994 to 2010

2011 totals and are waiting on December numbers, but the state and local markets exceeded last year in terms of quantity of sales.  Notice that rise towards the end and then take a look at the level it’s getting back to.  Market correction.  Demand is important because if people aren’t buying then price can not recover.

In terms of the local market we are seeing a similar month-to-month trend in activity with slight increases each year.  2009 appears a bit strange graphically, but this was due to the expiring Home Buyer tax credit that pushed activity up during that year and number of sales finishing about 1% higher than the year before.  Let’s take a look (Information based upon the Flagler County Association of Realtors MLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed):

Number of Residential House Sales For Flagler County Month-to-Month

The positive thing here is activity trends remaining similar.  This is key to knowing the better times to plan if you are thinking of selling.  For example if you place your house on the market for sale in January or February, your expectation should be that you will most likely see lower levels of activity.  The reason really isn’t “the market” but rather the normalcy or the local trends in activity.  Likewise, contrary to common assumptions . . . December is actually an active month for Real Estate locally.  Look at the consistent upticks for December each of the last 3 years.

Things are looking up, and we are seeing some great positives locally and at state level.  The numbers tell the story.

 
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Posted by on January 18, 2012 in Buyer Advice, General, Local Market Reports, Real Estate News, Seller Advice

 

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2010 Palm Coast and Flagler County Housing Recap

14 Jan

At the beginning of 2010 I had said it was going to be a very interesting year.  The tax credit was showing some promise to help boost home sales, but it remained to be seen as to what the effect would be once that credit ended.  Initially contracts had to closed by June 30th.  This spurred sales to perform very well in the first half of the year with the area running about 15% above the year before in terms of the number of sales and then fell off in July and the proceeding months.  The year ended basically even with 2009 in terms of the number of residential home sales for Flagler County as follows with 1,408 versus 1,411 in 2009.  Median selling price dipped 5% coming in at $130,000 compared to 2009 at $137,000 which was to be expected as the market continues to correct itself.

As you look at the graph of the number of home sale by month below you see that we had another good year in the area with sales “pushed” up in the year due to the tax credit deadline.  What do I anticipate for 2011?  If the phone calls and the messages I have been receiving during the holiday are any indicator, it should be another great year for the area.  I expect us to see a return to a consistent trend in terms of the number of closes each month throughout the year with another year that either meets or exceeds 2010.

Disclaimer: Information based upon the Flagler County Association of Realtors MLS as of 1/3/2011 for Residential Houses.  Information may be deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed

Kathleen West, Realtor

Trademark Realty Group of Palm Coast

2 Pine Lakes Parkway, Suite 1
Palm Coast, FL  32137
Office: (386) 446-5930
Email:  Kathleen@PalmCoastHomeShow.com
www.PalmCoastHomeShow.com
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Posted by on January 14, 2011 in Buyer Advice, Local Market Reports, Seller Advice

 

Why Interest Rates Can Be a Better Benefit Than a Tax Credit

17 Sep

The national average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is an astonshing 4.29%. Many buyers were obviously motivated by the tax credits last year and unfortunately the record-low interest rates get overshadowed. Are these rates a better benefit to make the decision to buy now if you are considering purchasing a home? Well let’s do the math and you’ll see that the truth is that these rates are the better benefit.

Let’s take a $100,000 loan at 30 years fixed today at 4.50%.

* Payment would be $506.69 (principal and interest)
* Total interest over the life of the loan would be $82,406.71 or $2,746.89 per year

That same loan of $100,000 at 30 years fixed just 1% higher at 5.50% would be:

* Payment of $567.79 (principal and interest) or $733.20 more per year
* Total interest over the life of the loan would be $104,404.04 or $3,480.13 per year

The difference in the cost of the two loans year over year would be $4,213.33 combining the additional payment amount and interest. Over the life of the loan the savings in interest is an whopping $21,997.33! So are these interest rates a better benefit to buyers today? Absolutely.

Start your Palm Coast or Flagler County, FL home search today at PalmCoastHomeShow.com or contact me so we can get your custom plan today.

 
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Posted by on September 17, 2010 in Buyer Advice, Local Market Reports, Mortgage Information & Advice, Real Estate News

 

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